How does the forecast account for transmission and coincident peaks (CP)? What is 1CP, 5CP, and 12CP, and how are they considered or used as constraints?

PJM constructs models to forecast peaks for each zone, this includes forecasts for both non-coincident and coincident peaks. The Company uses both of these to build a forecast for non-coincident and coincident peaks using an analogous approach as detailed on page 38 in the "Modeling Meeting 1 Slides." The current year’s peak forecast takes into consideration all prior peak history. The 1CP, 5CP, and 12CP are considered in the forecast given they are peak events that are included in this historical peak data that is used to build the peak forecast models.

How does the forecast account for transmission and coincident peaks (CP)? What is 1CP, 5CP, and 12CP, and how are they considered or used as constraints?

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