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How should stakeholders think about the sources of the data inputs used in the commodity forecast? Where do these inputs come from?
The commodity forecast relies on a combination of publicly available data sources and third party expert analysis. For example, fuel price assumptions such as natural gas prices are informed by publicly available sources, including the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA)’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). Load forecasting inputs incorporate PJM’s official load forecasts, and financial assumptions—such as construction or overnight capital costs—are also informed by publicly available reference data, such as National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Reference Case.
In addition to public sources, the third party forecaster incorporates expert input based on its experience working with regional markets, system operators, developers, and state policies. This includes assessing the potential impacts of factors such as tax credits, renewable standards, and other regulatory or market developments.